Summary

Norfolk’s population was an estimated 862,300 in mid-2010, an increase of 63,700 since mid-2001 (8 per cent), the same as the East of England average. Population density in 2010 was 1.61 people per hectare, the seventh lowest of the 27 English shire counties.

In the twelve months to mid-2010 the County’s population increase was around 8,900 people:

• in terms of broad age groups, numbers of children stayed the same, working age adults (15-64) and older people (aged 65 and over) each increased by over 4,000
• in terms of five-year age groups the most significant change was the rising number of 25-29 and 65-69 year olds, and the declining number of 35-39 year olds

Compared with England, Norfolk has maintained a relatively older age profile, with higher proportions of people aged 55-59 and over and lower proportions in the 45-49 and younger age groups. 21.4 per cent of Norfolk’s population in 2010 were aged 65 and over, as against 16.5 per cent in England, and 10.3 per cent aged 75 and over compared with 7.9 per cent nationally. There is currently a peak in 60-64 year olds in Norfolk (due to the post-war baby boom) and, to a lesser degree, in 40-49 year olds (due to high birth rates in the late 1960s, when national birth rates were falling).

The ONS 2008-based population projections, which are trend-based, suggest that Norfolk’s population could increase from 847,300 in 2008 to 963,400 in 2021 and 1,065,700 in 2033.

Over the twenty-five years to 2033 some increase could be expected across all broad age groups, though with very little change in the young adults - people aged 15-24. The most significant numerical and proportional increase would be in those aged 75 and over, but there would also be significant increases in ages 65-74. The largest group numerically would remain those aged 45-64. The emphasis is on the increasing number and proportion of older people in the population - 60% of the population increase will occur in ages 65 and over.

These changes would have a significant impact on local demand for health and social services as the prevalence of conditions such as dementia and disabling life events such as heart attack and stroke increase with age. For example, about one in four people aged over 85 develop dementia and this age group is projected to increase by around 42,600 (174%) over 25 years (2008 to 2033). The total number of older people with dementia in Norfolk is therefore expected to increase significantly.

Data

• Population Estimates | Broad age structure [source - ONS]
• Population Estimates | Five year age structure [source - ONS]
• Population Estimates | Single year of age [source - ONS]
• Population Projections [source - ONS]

Find out more

• DIN 2/12 | Norfolk Demographic Update 2011
• DIN 5/11 | Population estimates for mid-2010
• DIN 2/11 | Mid-2009 parish population estimates for Norfolk
• DIN 1/11 | Norfolk demographic update 2010

Data

• ACORN Classification [source - CACI]

Summary

The 2008-2010 three-year rolling average life expectancy at birth in Norfolk is 79.5 years for men and 83.3 for women. The comparative rates for the Region are 77.6 and 83.2 respectively, and for England are 78.6 and 82.6, so the County’s averages for both men and women are currently slightly very close to the regional rates.

The expectation of life for the same period in Norfolk is 19 years for men and 21.4 for women. This is a little above the Regional rate (18.7 for men and 21.2 for women), which itself is above the England rate (18.2 for men and 20.8 for women).

Data

• Life Expectancy [source - ONS]
  

Summary

In 2010 there were 9,259 live births to mothers resident in Norfolk and 8,994 deaths of Norfolk residents, giving a net gain through natural change of 265 – the largest figure since 1974. The number of births has increased steadily since the historically low figure of 2001, and in 2008 was at the highest level since 1971 – such that births and deaths are now practically in balance.

The total fertility rate (which is the average number of live-born children that would be born per woman if women experienced the current age-specific fertility rates throughout their childbearing life span) of 1.89 in Norfolk as a whole in 2010 was, nevertheless, lower than for the Region (2.03) and for England (2.00). This is largely due to the very low figure of 1.45 in Norwich. In Norfolk 53.3% of births in 2010 were outside marriage or civil partnership, well above the rate for the Region (44.9%) and England (46.3%).

Data

• Births and Mortality [source - ONS]

Summary

The County’s ethnic composition has changed significantly since the 2001 Census recorded a minority ethnic population of 30,000 (3.8 per cent of the total). By mid-2009 this is estimated to have risen to 80,000 (9.4 per cent). Similarly, numbers in ethnic groups other than White rose from 1.5 per cent of the population in 2001 to around 5.7 per cent in 2009.

Data

• Population Estimates by Ethnic group [source - ONS]
• Ethnicity at below district level [source - 2001 Census]
• Country of Birth Statistics [source - CACI]

Find out more

• BME Communities Inclusion Project Report
• 2001 Census topic report on ethnic group, country of birth and religion

Migration summary

In the year to September 2010, based on GP patient re-registrations, the County gained around 23,700 migrants from elsewhere in the UK and lost around 20,600, giving a net gain of around 3,100. There were net losses in the 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 year olds and net gains in all other age groups. People in the older age groups were a relatively small proportion of migrants but accounted for a disproportionately large share of the net migration gains. To illustrate this, migrants aged 50 and over accounted for around 23 per cent of in-migrants and 18 per cent of out-migrants, but 59 per cent of the County’s net migration increase over this period. Around 38.5 per cent of migration in and out of Norfolk within England was with the remainder of the East Region, plus another 27.3 per cent with London and the South East, making nearly two thirds in total. There was generally a net gain to Norfolk from these Regions across all age groups, except for a net loss of young people aged 16-24 to London.

The migration figures used for the Mid Year Estimates of population indicate a net migration gain of around 8,700 people from mid-2009 to mid-2010. More than half of the net migration gain is from international migration (around 4,800) though the total numbers of people moving are much lower. Though the main impact of international migration was in Norwich (a net gain of 2,600, over half of the County total), over the year to mid-2010 all Districts have recorded net gains from international in-migration. ONS are introducing improved methods of distributing international in-migration estimates to local authorities, which seems likely to reduce the estimated migration into Norfolk (and the main effect will be to reduce the Norwich figures).

The County has received significant international migration from the EU, originally from Portugal and more recently from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. There is in addition a largely unquantifiable element of international migration attributable to short-term migrants, here primarily to seek work and highly mobile, but unlikely to be counted as part of the resident population.

Migration data

• Worker Registration Scheme [source - Home Office]

• Topic Summary: Demography update - January 2012

• Topic Summary: Demography update - August 2010

• Topic Summary: Demography update - October 2009

• Topic Summary: Demography update - May 2008